Machine-readable Global Macro-Economic Data:

MNI Week Ahead: ECB Rate Decision and US CPI Headline the Calendar

By Emil Lundh
September 6, 2026

The week ahead is dominated by the ECB rate decision and US August inflation data. Markets will also watch Bank of England speakers, Nordic CPI prints, revised Eurozone and Japan GDP, and a run of emerging-market central bank meetings.

Below is the key developed- and emerging-market calendar.

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Developed Markets Calendar

Bank of England: MPC testimony, Agents survey and inflation expectations

Through the week — BOE speakers

Four MPC members testify Tuesday afternoon (14:15 BST) before the Treasury Select Committee on the July Monetary Policy Report: Governor Andrew Bailey, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden, and external members Megan Greene and Alan Taylor. Taylor’s annual report is also due.

These may be the last MPC remarks before the September meeting. Watch Bailey and Ramsden most closely. Both sit in the “swing voter” group with Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli; two of those three would likely be needed to back a hike.

Friday, 09:30 BST — BOE Agents’ Survey and Inflation Attitudes Survey

Focus for the Agents’ Survey of Business Conditions:

• Whether pay settlements stay around 3.5% for 2026, and any early 2027 settlement comments
• Food-price growth. The July survey expected a 4–5% peak later this year, down from 6–7% in April. Food remains a key driver of household inflation expectations.

The quarterly BOE/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey lands the same day. Citi/YouGov 12-month expectations rose to 3.9% in August from 3.4% in July (June: 3.8%). Longer-term expectations rose to 4.1% from 3.7% in July (June: 3.9%).

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Monday / Thursday — Sweden and Norway August inflation

Sweden — Monday, 07:00 BST / 08:00 CET

Bloomberg consensus for Swedish flash CPIF ex-energy is 0.7% y/y; a few analysts look for 0.8%. The Riksbank’s June MPR projected 0.53% y/y. A consensus print would cut the forecast miss to 0.2pp from 0.3pp in July.

At the less-hawkish-than-expected August decision, the Riksbank blamed higher June and July inflation on volatile travel services. August and September CPI will show whether those components reverse, which is the Riksbank baseline. Sticky services plus upside surprises in goods — as seen in this week’s Eurozone flash HICP — would pull the Board closer to policy normalisation.

Norway

CPI-ATE is expected to jump to 3.1% y/y from 2.7% in July, partly on a childcare base effect. Norges Bank’s June MPR projected 3.3%, but that path is stale after downside surprises in June and July.

In August, Norges Bank said it “may still become necessary to raise the policy rate” but that it was “too early to conclude that the inflation outlook has changed materially since June.” The August report is a key input for the September decision and MPR rate path.

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Monday — Eurozone Q2 GDP third estimate

Risks are skewed higher. After a large ~6.3pp upward revision to Irish growth and later revisions in Germany, France and Italy, Eurozone GDP could be revised to about 0.6–0.7% q/q from the 0.44% flash — adding roughly 0.2pp after a flat Q1. The release will also give the first expenditure, income and production breakdowns.

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Tuesday — Japan Q2 GDP final estimate

Consensus is for 1.8% q/q annualised, up from the preliminary 1.1%, led by stronger capex. Private consumption is seen unchanged. Business spending is expected at -0.8% q/q versus -1.2% initially — still a second straight decline, with little 2026 spillover so far from strong external demand.

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Thursday — ECB interest rate decision

The ECB is fully priced to raise the deposit rate to 2.50%. A September hike has been the baseline since the Bank framed a “measured adjustment” as the right response to the US-Iran war energy shock. Firmer energy prices and a more resilient economy have locked in that view, even with spot inflation below the June projections and second-round risks still contained.

Watch:

• Updated staff macroeconomic projections
• Press-conference guidance vs market pricing of nearly three more 25bp hikes by mid-2027

A move to 2.50% would take the deposit rate to the top of Chief Economist Philip Lane’s new nominal-neutral upper bound. Some hawkish Governing Council members have already left the door open to further tightening.

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Thursday / Friday — US August PPI and CPI

PPI prints Thursday; CPI Friday — an unusual order.

Consensus:

• Core CPI: 0.2% m/m again after 0.22% in July; early unrounded estimates sit around 0.22–0.25% m/m
• Headline CPI: 0.4% m/m, with energy bouncing and food firmer after a soft July

Fed Governor Christopher Waller has again set the tone before CPI, this time in a more dovish direction than his pre-June-CPI shift. He said he is “finally seeing some signs of disinflation,” and would be inclined to hold in September if August data show continued progress. He argued underlying inflation is “doing better” than core suggests and that wage growth is consistent with a return to 2%. He wants to give “disinflation a chance,” but also said it may not take much upside to justify a “small adjustment.” He warned against over-relying on trends and missing turning points.

Once both CPI and PPI are in, attention will stay on market-based core PCE trackers that strip volatile items such as portfolio-management fees — due large, likely downward, revisions with month-end PCE. Market-based core PCE ran 0.15% m/m in July and 0.18% in June, rare prints consistent with a 2% target.

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Emerging Markets Calendar

Full regional notes: MNI CEEMEA Week Ahead [blocked] | MNI LatAm Week Ahead [blocked]

Tuesday — Chile BCCh rate decision

The BCCh is expected to hold at 4.50% for a sixth straight meeting, keeping its meeting-by-meeting stance amid geopolitical risk and energy-price pressure. Much weaker activity data have raised the chance of a dovish tilt and a return to easing.

Wednesday — China August CPI and PPI

A key read on domestic demand and industrial health amid deflation risk.

• CPI: seen up a little to +0.9% y/y, still near recent lows on weak retail spending and discounting
• PPI: seen at +3.7% from +3.5% in July

PPI-to-CPI pass-through remains weak because of overcapacity and a sluggish consumer. Energy and strong AI-related demand are likely lifting PPI; transport prices help explain the modest CPI rise.

Thursday — Turkey CBRT rate decision

August headline and monthly CPI undershot slightly, but Core C moved back above 30% y/y. Oil, food and seasonal education costs keep upside risks alive. Analysts broadly expect the CBRT to stay cautious and hold.

Thursday — Peru BCRP rate decision

The BCRP is likely to hold at 4.25%, treating the recent inflation spike as temporary and still expecting a return to target as supply shocks fade. Strong demand and inflation at a three-year high have increased the risk of a hawkish tilt and a hike before year-end.

Friday — Russia CBR rate decision

No clear consensus: some look for a hold, others another 25bp cut. At the last meeting the CBR cut 25bp and said future moves would depend on inflation, inflation expectations, and domestic and external risks.